Preseason Rankings
Wichita St.
American Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#81
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.5#138
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#70
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#111
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 2.9% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 2.3% 2.9% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 4.9% 2.9% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 28.2% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.3% 21.9% 7.1%
Average Seed 9.0 8.9 10.0
.500 or above 74.2% 80.0% 55.4%
.500 or above in Conference 68.7% 72.6% 56.1%
Conference Champion 9.6% 11.1% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.0% 2.8%
First Four4.7% 5.3% 2.9%
First Round21.5% 25.4% 8.9%
Second Round10.1% 12.1% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 4.2% 1.3%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.7% 0.4%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 76.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.6 - 2.70.6 - 2.7
Quad 1b1.2 - 2.61.8 - 5.3
Quad 23.6 - 3.85.4 - 9.1
Quad 35.8 - 2.611.2 - 11.7
Quad 46.3 - 0.817.5 - 12.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 141   Louisiana Tech W 75-71 76%    
  Nov 09, 2018 47   Providence L 70-74 37%    
  Nov 15, 2018 88   Davidson W 72-71 52%    
  Nov 16, 2018 175   Appalachian St. W 80-73 73%    
  Nov 18, 2018 39   Alabama L 71-75 35%    
  Nov 25, 2018 323   Rice W 80-64 95%    
  Dec 01, 2018 48   Baylor L 70-74 48%    
  Dec 08, 2018 53   @ Oklahoma L 81-84 30%    
  Dec 12, 2018 146   Jacksonville St. W 73-68 75%    
  Dec 15, 2018 163   Southern Miss W 75-69 79%    
  Dec 19, 2018 283   Oral Roberts W 79-66 91%    
  Dec 22, 2018 127   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 77-74 53%    
  Jan 03, 2019 101   @ Memphis W 74-72 46%    
  Jan 06, 2019 72   Temple L 73-74 56%    
  Jan 12, 2019 37   @ Houston L 72-77 26%    
  Jan 16, 2019 55   Central Florida L 66-69 50%    
  Jan 19, 2019 36   Cincinnati L 65-70 44%    
  Jan 22, 2019 250   @ South Florida W 75-64 75%    
  Jan 26, 2019 96   @ Connecticut W 73-72 45%    
  Jan 30, 2019 56   SMU L 68-71 51%    
  Feb 02, 2019 98   Tulsa W 74-72 64%    
  Feb 06, 2019 290   @ East Carolina W 80-67 80%    
  Feb 09, 2019 195   Tulane W 79-71 82%    
  Feb 17, 2019 36   @ Cincinnati L 65-70 27%    
  Feb 20, 2019 98   @ Tulsa W 74-72 45%    
  Feb 23, 2019 101   Memphis W 74-72 66%    
  Feb 28, 2019 96   Connecticut W 73-72 64%    
  Mar 03, 2019 56   @ SMU L 68-71 32%    
  Mar 05, 2019 290   East Carolina W 80-67 91%    
  Mar 09, 2019 195   @ Tulane W 79-71 65%    
Projected Record 17.5 - 12.5 10.1 - 7.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.1 0.2 9.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.0 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.1 5.1 3.5 0.6 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 5.1 3.7 0.7 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.9 3.4 0.5 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.6 4.0 0.7 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.6 3.7 0.8 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.5 3.2 0.8 0.1 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 2.8 2.4 0.7 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.0 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.8 5.6 7.8 10.4 11.0 11.9 11.5 11.3 9.1 6.2 4.0 2.4 1.1 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.8% 1.1    1.0 0.1
16-2 93.1% 2.2    1.7 0.5 0.0
15-3 69.4% 2.8    1.7 0.9 0.1
14-4 34.9% 2.2    0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0
13-5 11.1% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 5.6 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 54.5% 45.5% 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.1% 98.7% 37.7% 61.0% 3.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9%
16-2 2.4% 97.3% 23.9% 73.4% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.5%
15-3 4.0% 88.6% 20.2% 68.4% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 85.7%
14-4 6.2% 75.0% 16.5% 58.5% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 70.1%
13-5 9.1% 51.9% 9.6% 42.3% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.4 46.8%
12-6 11.3% 32.6% 8.2% 24.4% 10.7 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.6 26.6%
11-7 11.5% 15.3% 5.6% 9.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.8 10.2%
10-8 11.9% 9.0% 5.7% 3.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.8 3.5%
9-9 11.0% 3.6% 3.3% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 0.3%
8-10 10.4% 2.7% 2.4% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.1 0.3%
7-11 7.8% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.7
6-12 5.6% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.4
5-13 3.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 3.8
4-14 2.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
3-15 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 24.0% 7.0% 17.0% 9.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.1 3.0 3.5 4.8 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 76.0 18.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 81.8 12.1 3.0 3.0